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Geoffrey Minne

  • Thursday 5/11/2020
    Peter Reusens, Geoffrey Minne

    Seven months after it was launched, the ERMG survey continues to take the pulse of the Belgian companies by measuring the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on their economic activity and their financial health. After a partial rebound between May and August, the Belgian companies’ (self-reported) turnover stalled in September and October at -14 % below normal levels. Moving forward, the COVID-19 crisis will most likely leave scars on the economy as expectations about next year’s revenue, investment plans, employment and risk of bankruptcy remain gloomy. In addition, the recent further worsening of the health situation and the new restrictive measures including the second lockdown of November 2020 are not yet reflected in the latest survey dating from October 20. These recent developments will undoubtedly worsen the already bleak economic outlook. Finally, the crisis will also have a lasting impact on the way employees will work: with wider use of telework, more flexible working hours and less business travel.

  • Wednesday 6/5/2020
    Geoffrey Minne, Peter Reusens

    The current health crisis and subsequent lockdown measures have provoked a sizable shock for Belgian private companies. A new weekly survey targeting Belgian private companies was launched for the Economic Risk Management Group (ERMG) to gauge the impact of the coronavirus crisis on the Belgian economy. After conducting four waves of the survey, we estimate the average turnover reduction for the entire economy at 33% compared to the pre-crisis situation. The bars, hotels and restaurants industry and the arts, entertainment and leisure industry report a much larger negative impact and one out of five respondents active in these sectors says bankruptcy is probable or highly probable.