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Koen De Leus

  • Lundi 30/5/2022

    The developed world is almost liberated from covid-19. This does not mean that we will be reliving the roaring 20's, or the very fast growth after the second world war. However, we are also a long way from the dire situation after the Great Financial Crisis that had left major scars in the economy. Economic scars from the pandemic are minor compared to the scars left by the GFC.

    If we get it right, the reopening and the recovery of the economy - for which a soon returning peace in Ukraine is a prerequisite - could be the harbinger of great things to come. Possibly we are facing a regime change, a reset of the economy rather than a simple reboot. Comparison with the post-war recovery is popular. After the two world wars, the infrastructure had to be rebuilt. This time it needs to be thoroughly adapted to meet the climate challenge. This will require major public investments and adjustments to corporate production. Although a population explosion and a huge increase in credit are unlikely (two important growth engines during the post-war periods), an increase in investment - for a speedy energy transition - and productivity - increased technology investment by a broader range of companies during the covid period - are possible. The government will have to take on an important role here and lead by example. In this way, we can turn the necessary energy transition into an opportunity to put growth on a faster path compared to before the pandemic.

  • Mercredi 6/5/2020
    Koen De Leus

    Will residential real estate prices go down badly because of the Corona recession? We see a lower supply, low mortgage rates, a largely stable demand and only a slight decrease in disposable income. Add to this a negative inflation of -0.4%. That combination leads us to a minimum decline of 1% for 2020 and stable real real estate prices in 2021. Of course, if our U-shaped scenario turns into a more protracted recession, price pressure will be mounting.

     

  • Mercredi 6/5/2020
    Koen De Leus, Ludo Coenen

    The corona virus is impacting heavily our economy. Forecasts for Belgium - and Europe - range from -5% to -15% for 2020. The ultimate damage depends on whether we can control the virus after a gradual relaxation of the measures. For our long-term prosperity, it is crucial that after the strong contraction, there will be a full recovery without loss of production capacity. We developed a plan to achieve a quick and safe recovery.

  • Vendredi 28/2/2020
    Koen De Leus

    Dit artikel is gebaseerd op de toespraak van Koen De Leus voor het Belgisch Financieel Forum in Gent op 14 januari 2020.

     

    De Chinese groei stond de voorbije periode onder druk als gevolg van het handelsconflict met de VS. Maar ook tijdens de voorbije decennia opgeblazen zeepbellen wegen op de groei.

    Van een investeringsgedreven groei moet China evolueren naar een consumptiegedreven economie. En het heeft daar de middelen voor met een nog hoge spaarquote die naar omlaag gehaald kan worden door de uitbouw van een betere sociale zekerheid en een doorgedreven urbanisatie. Ook de digitalisering speelt in heel de Chinese economie een almaar grotere rol. De Chinese reus is ontwaakt, en de wereld zal het geweten hebben.