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RBF numérique 2020/10

  • Mardi 1/12/2020
    Jean Hilgers

    This article provides an overview of recent relevant developments for the financial sector and financial stability in Belgium. Next to the uncertain macro-financial context, it covers developments in credit to the real economy, the impact of the COVID-crisis on banks’ and insurance companies’ activities and results, trends in the Belgian real estate market as well as more structural challenges facing the Belgian financial sector. It also provides an overview of recent prudential measures and recommendations to the financial sector.

  • Mardi 1/12/2020
     Leen Van den Neste

    Banking thrives in a calm and stable environment. After the global financial crisis of 2008, however, governmental authorities undertook a range of necessary measures that had an enormous impact on the funding and the reporting requirements imposed on financial institutions, systemic and specialized institutions alike. The ongoing COVID-19 crisis has further deepened the negative effects of the low interest rate environment, and forces all banks to think broadly, continue to digitalise their businesses, and seek for more alternative income. Smaller banks face the same challenges as their systemic counterparts but continue to believe in their strength to work close to their customers and find tailor-made solutions for their demands.

  • Mardi 1/12/2020
    André Sapir

    This article explores why some countries have been hit economically more than others by COVID-19. Using statistical techniques, several potential explanations are examined: the severity of lockdown measures, the structure of the economy, the fiscal capacity of the government to counter the collapse in economic activity and quality of governance of the country.

  • Mardi 1/12/2020
    Vincent Juvyns

    Despite the pandemic, the long-term paths of slow growth and low inflation remain intact, albeit with greater uncertainty around inflation. The pandemic has triggered even easier monetary policy, although fiscal policy is likely to take the leading role in promoting economic growth in the decade ahead. 
    Strong returns from equities and high-quality bonds through the pandemic have left valuations stretched. A traditional 60/40 portfolio of global stocks and U.S. bonds presents a very subdued frontier of potential returns.  However, many other asset classes shine above this low horizon, including European and Emerging markets equities, high-yield and emerging market debt and an assortment of alternative investments. In addition, active management should be able to take advantage of distortions in relative valuations that have been created by years of central bank intervention and momentum investing. 

  • Mardi 1/12/2020
    Paul De Grauwe

    The market system is subject to limits that have to do with externalities, inequalities and excessive market concentration. These can only be taken care of by government action. But governments are also subject to limits in their capacity to act. In my book “The Limits of the market” I analyze the nature of these limits and how they can be overcome.


  • Mardi 1/12/2020
    Frank Maet

    Construction and real estate activity recovered after the first COVID-19 wave starting in the summer, but the tightening of security measures may again temporarily weigh on activity in Q4. We take into account a fall in house prices in 2020 and 2021 due to the recession weighing on household income. However, the fall in prices remains limited by low interest rates, investor demand and government measures to mitigate the damage to income.


  • Mardi 1/12/2020
    Marjan Wauters, Koen Breemersch

    The current study presents an estimation of the state of the crowdfunding market in Belgium based on an analysis of information notes received by the Financial Services and Markets Authority (FSMA). It appears that the interest in investing through crowdfunding has been growing steadily over time in Belgium. Our results show that eight platforms launched in total 234 financing campaigns with an information note. For 145 campaigns, the effective collected amount is known. At least 140 campaigns were successful. They managed to collect 69.24 mio euro in total. In 2019, the market at least doubled in terms of size compared to 2017. Over the first half of 2020 a decrease in the number of information notes has been noticed, it is too early to say whether this is related to the COVID-19 crisis or not.

  • Mardi 1/12/2020

    Boekbespreking: “De limieten van de markt. De slinger tussen overheid en kapitalisme (nieuwe editie na corona).” /Paul De Grauwe

    door Carlos Bourgeois, lid redactiecomité Bank- en Financiewezen