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RBF numérique 2020/8

  • Jeudi 1/10/2020

    Contrary to most other (European) countries, Sweden mainly relied on voluntary measures  rather than binding restrictions in its fight against the coronavirus. This 'soft' anti-corona strategy was applauded by some, but there is not yet overwhelming evidence that it has drastically reduced economic costs. There are indications that the milder lockdown has spared the domestic economy a little. Sweden’s situation reminds us that in small, open economies, such as Belgium's, budgetary stimulus is not very effective in stimulating economic recovery, and the focus on competitiveness is all the more important.

  • Jeudi 1/10/2020

    The situation in Belgium is such that continuing on the current course is no longer an option. Fiddling in the margins, or muddling politics is a postponement of action, where our legacy consists of an exhausted planet, an overtaxed population that is weighed down by heavy debt and governed by a multi-headed oversized administration. The Corona crisis should enable the substituting of the mentality "as long as the orchestra is playing" with a sense of urgency whereby responsibility and solidarity are no longer empty concepts. This presupposes a vision of the future of our country embedding structural measures. Although such an approach needs to be holistic by nature, this paper highlights two concrete measures, one linked to structural fiscal reform and one linked to a reshoring vision for our industry. 

  • Jeudi 1/10/2020

    Like every crisis, covid-19 holds the opportunity to strengthen our economy/society through lessons learned from the crisis. This obviously requires that we take away the correct lessons from the current episode. In the past few months a number of all too easy conclusions have been drawn from the crisis that are not supported by the facts. Flexibility, robustness, digitalization and internationalization are, up to now, the key lessons from this crisis.

  • Jeudi 1/10/2020

    This article uses anonymised and aggregated transaction data of ING Belgium customers to analyse the impact of confinement and deconfinement periods on the consumption behaviour of Belgians. It shows that, while confinement has led to a very sharp fall in Belgian spending, deconfinement has not led to a return to normal.

  • Jeudi 1/10/2020

    In July, the Study Committee on Ageing published its 19th annual report estimating the budgetary impact of ageing over the long term. More in particular, it concerns a forecast until 2070 of the change in all social expenditure expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). Since the projections made are inevitably based on hypotheses surrounded by (sometimes considerable) uncertainty, this is by no means a prediction. This year, on top of the traditional uncertainty inherent in long-term forecasts, there is an additional uncertainty regarding the evolution and socio-economic consequences of the COVID-19 epidemic. This short article summarises the hypotheses of these consequences and shows the extent to which they have an impact on the estimated costs of ageing.