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Articles disponibles gratuitement du domaine d’activités de la Revue bancaire et financière – Bank en Financiewezen. Les articles sont mis à disposition dans leur langue originale.

  • Jeudi 4/2/2021
    Dessoy

    For more than 25 years, Belfius has been analyzing the financial situation of general hospitals in Belgium through its Maha study (Model for Automatic Hospital Analysis).

    The in-depth analysis of the 2019 annual accounts of Belgian hospitals (part 1) shows once again that their financial health is precarious, despite a very slight improvement compared to previous years. Consequently, they cannot absorb a financial setback, especially a tsunami like the Covid-19 crisis.

     

    The first projections (part 2) suggest, with the usual precautions, turbulence of an unprecedented magnitude for the sector. With the second wave of contaminations, hospitals are likely to suffer a current loss of more than 2 billion Euros.

     

    The hospital sector alone will not be able to overcome the financial consequences of this health crisis (part 3). In the short term, financial support from the public authorities is indispensable, while in the medium term structural reforms in hospital financing seem unavoidable to preserve the sector's viability

  • Jeudi 4/2/2021
    logo nbb

    Lending to private individuals was strongly influenced by the COVID-19 crisis last year. The number of new credit lines went down by 29,6% and the instalment loans decreased by 18,7%. The number of mortgage loans dropped by 14,8% which is largely due to the exceptionally high volume recorded in 2019 in anticipation of the abolition of the housing bonus in Flanders at the end of 2019. At the end of 2020 the number of private individuals with payment defaults declined by 6,3%. This cannot be dissociated from the possibility of getting a temporary payment delay on account of the COVID-19 crisis. The 7,2 million consultations of the Central Credit Register of the National Bank implied a drop of 14,8%.

  • Jeudi 4/2/2021
    Boekbespreking

    Boekbespreking door Jonas Vandenbruaene, doctoraatstudent financiële economie Universiteit Antwerpen en medeoprichter van databureau AKARI Analytics

  • Jeudi 14/1/2021
    Mikael Petitjean

    Relative to other global institutions, financial markets performed remarkably well in 2020 and investors ought not to be ashamed of their reactions relative to consumers. It would be a terrible abuse of language to characterize 2020 as being financially irrational. The Covid crisis in 2020 was one of the most orderly crises ever. The damage and the reward across companies, sectors, and countries made a lot of sense. Although there are pockets of extremely high valuations in the tech sector, humility has always been a virtue when it came to valuing tech firms. While stocks are very expensive in absolute terms especially in the US, they are not relative to governmental bonds. But there is a big caveat to all this: the rise in the monetary supply since 2010 has been so incredible that markets have dived deep in unchartered waters. Central banks must find our way back to homeland.

  • Jeudi 14/1/2021
    Bartsch, Boivin & Hildebrand

    The macroeconomic policy revolution accelerated by Covid-19 implies that central bank policy rates and nominal bonds yields will be less responsive to rising inflation pressures over the medium-term. The potential for higher consumer price inflation over the medium-term is still underappreciated, we think, because the new central bank policy frameworks and global cost pressures are not fully reflected in private sector inflation expectations. Neither is the shift towards a closer coordination between monetary and fiscal policy. Combined with the fact that bond yields remain close to their effective lower bound and that authorities need to rely to a greater extent on fiscal policy, the role of government bonds in investment portfolios as a hedge against risk-off events such as the one in March 2020 is increasingly challenged. In contrast to past inflation episodes, less-responsive nominal interest rates and bonds yields mean that government bonds are also becoming less effective as store of value. 

  • Jeudi 14/1/2021
    Boata & Lemerle

    The Covid-19 vaccine will supercharge global growth in 2021, but short-term headwinds, and a complete recovery only by 2022, will create transition risks.

    In mid-2021, despite the sizeable hurdles on the demand (vaccination skepticism) and supply sides (production & distribution bottlenecks), we expect the vaccination of vulnerable populations (20-40% of the total) to be completed, setting the stage for a buoyant growth rally in H2 2021.

    Policymakers will particularly be under scrutiny, as they will continue to run the show again in 2021-22.

    In the real economy, cyclical sectors (including energy, metals, and automotive) to see strong catch-up growth as soon as Q2 2021 as the recovery starts to unfold and economic uncertainty recedes.

  • Jeudi 14/1/2021
    Boukamel

    Deux fois par an, la Fédération des entreprises de Belgique (FEB) interroge ses fédérations sectorielles pour mesurer la température économique. Sur la base de cette enquête (menée durant le mois de novembre), elle dresse le bilan de la situation économique belge et ses prévisions pour le semestre à venir.

  • Mardi 1/12/2020
    Jean Hilgers

    This article provides an overview of recent relevant developments for the financial sector and financial stability in Belgium. Next to the uncertain macro-financial context, it covers developments in credit to the real economy, the impact of the COVID-crisis on banks’ and insurance companies’ activities and results, trends in the Belgian real estate market as well as more structural challenges facing the Belgian financial sector. It also provides an overview of recent prudential measures and recommendations to the financial sector.

  • Mardi 1/12/2020
     Leen Van den Neste

    Banking thrives in a calm and stable environment. After the global financial crisis of 2008, however, governmental authorities undertook a range of necessary measures that had an enormous impact on the funding and the reporting requirements imposed on financial institutions, systemic and specialized institutions alike. The ongoing COVID-19 crisis has further deepened the negative effects of the low interest rate environment, and forces all banks to think broadly, continue to digitalise their businesses, and seek for more alternative income. Smaller banks face the same challenges as their systemic counterparts but continue to believe in their strength to work close to their customers and find tailor-made solutions for their demands.

  • Mardi 1/12/2020
    André Sapir

    This article explores why some countries have been hit economically more than others by COVID-19. Using statistical techniques, several potential explanations are examined: the severity of lockdown measures, the structure of the economy, the fiscal capacity of the government to counter the collapse in economic activity and quality of governance of the country.

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