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Articles disponibles gratuitement du domaine d’activités de la Revue bancaire et financière – Bank en Financiewezen. Les articles sont mis à disposition dans leur langue originale.

  • Mardi 1/12/2020
    Vincent Juvyns

    Despite the pandemic, the long-term paths of slow growth and low inflation remain intact, albeit with greater uncertainty around inflation. The pandemic has triggered even easier monetary policy, although fiscal policy is likely to take the leading role in promoting economic growth in the decade ahead. 
    Strong returns from equities and high-quality bonds through the pandemic have left valuations stretched. A traditional 60/40 portfolio of global stocks and U.S. bonds presents a very subdued frontier of potential returns.  However, many other asset classes shine above this low horizon, including European and Emerging markets equities, high-yield and emerging market debt and an assortment of alternative investments. In addition, active management should be able to take advantage of distortions in relative valuations that have been created by years of central bank intervention and momentum investing. 

  • Mardi 1/12/2020
    Paul De Grauwe

    The market system is subject to limits that have to do with externalities, inequalities and excessive market concentration. These can only be taken care of by government action. But governments are also subject to limits in their capacity to act. In my book “The Limits of the market” I analyze the nature of these limits and how they can be overcome.

     

  • Mardi 1/12/2020
    Frank Maet

    Construction and real estate activity recovered after the first COVID-19 wave starting in the summer, but the tightening of security measures may again temporarily weigh on activity in Q4. We take into account a fall in house prices in 2020 and 2021 due to the recession weighing on household income. However, the fall in prices remains limited by low interest rates, investor demand and government measures to mitigate the damage to income.

     

  • Mardi 1/12/2020
    Marjan Wauters, Koen Breemersch

    The current study presents an estimation of the state of the crowdfunding market in Belgium based on an analysis of information notes received by the Financial Services and Markets Authority (FSMA). It appears that the interest in investing through crowdfunding has been growing steadily over time in Belgium. Our results show that eight platforms launched in total 234 financing campaigns with an information note. For 145 campaigns, the effective collected amount is known. At least 140 campaigns were successful. They managed to collect 69.24 mio euro in total. In 2019, the market at least doubled in terms of size compared to 2017. Over the first half of 2020 a decrease in the number of information notes has been noticed, it is too early to say whether this is related to the COVID-19 crisis or not.

  • Mardi 1/12/2020

    Boekbespreking: “De limieten van de markt. De slinger tussen overheid en kapitalisme (nieuwe editie na corona).” /Paul De Grauwe

    door Carlos Bourgeois, lid redactiecomité Bank- en Financiewezen

  • Jeudi 5/11/2020
    Peter Reusens, Geoffrey Minne

    Seven months after it was launched, the ERMG survey continues to take the pulse of the Belgian companies by measuring the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on their economic activity and their financial health. After a partial rebound between May and August, the Belgian companies’ (self-reported) turnover stalled in September and October at -14 % below normal levels. Moving forward, the COVID-19 crisis will most likely leave scars on the economy as expectations about next year’s revenue, investment plans, employment and risk of bankruptcy remain gloomy. In addition, the recent further worsening of the health situation and the new restrictive measures including the second lockdown of November 2020 are not yet reflected in the latest survey dating from October 20. These recent developments will undoubtedly worsen the already bleak economic outlook. Finally, the crisis will also have a lasting impact on the way employees will work: with wider use of telework, more flexible working hours and less business travel.

  • Jeudi 5/11/2020
    Isabelle Marchand

    More than six months ago COVID-19 first appeared in Belgium, and we now know the virus won’t go away any time soon. Apart from being a health crisis, the corona crisis also had a huge negative impact on the social and economic fabric of our country, often with devastating consequences for businesses and employees alike. An exceptional crisis calls for exceptional measures. This article offers an insight into the combined measures the financial sector, the National Bank of Belgium and the federal government have taken since mid-March to support both our society and economy in these challenging times

  • Jeudi 5/11/2020
    Hans Degryse

    COVID-19 puts firms under severe strain in countries where the pandemic continues to hit. The initial reaction was to provide outright transfers and liquidity support to weather this perfect storm. We argue that a focus on the solvency of firms and sectors is needed. We discuss several avenues on how to improve firm solvency such as conditional transfers and a pandemic equity fund. We further argue that support policies should avoid a further zombification of the economy: preserve firms (and jobs) that have a post-COVID-19 viable business model. Redirecting resources to the future engines of growth is desirable. Banks, policy makers and businesses face a balancing act to keep firms and sectors with “post-corona viable business models” liquid and solvent. At the same time, policymakers should avoid zombification and allow for creative destruction such that firms with “post-corona non-viable business models” are reorganized or liquidated.

  • Jeudi 5/11/2020
    M. Robyns

    The COVID-19 outbreak could have been described as a double whammy for the (Belgian) insurance industry, hitting both its activity as asset managers and its activity as risk carriers. In this article, Wauthier Robyns from Assuralia, the trade association of insurance undertakings, explains how pandemics test the limits of insurability due to a lack of robust statistics allowing sound underwriting and due to the systemic nature of losses arising simultaneously around the globe: as yet there is no self-evident blueprint for insurance solutions matching the entire fallout of such pandemics.

    The impact of COVID-19 across the spectrum of the insurance industry varies according to the distinct business lines. In some lines of business, the fallback in wages or production will be reflected by a fallback in premium income; in some lines like automobile insurance the lockdown led to a decrease in claims frequency while the long-term effect is still uncertain. Belgium did not experience strong controversies about business interruption insurances as elsewhere, since on the Belgian market such cover tends to be strictly related to events in which named perils caused material losses. Trade credit insurance deserves a special mention due to its important role in maintaining trust among businesses in troubled times, through a public-private partnership providing the guarantees needed to keep the covered volumes of business at the pre-COVID-19 level. Both the industry and individual companies took special measures to help their customers face an unexpected emergency.

  • Jeudi 5/11/2020
    Boekx / Deroose / Vincent

    In early 2020, COVID-19 sent financial markets into turmoil, while lockdown measures resulted in large and sudden economic losses. In response, governments, financial supervisors and central banks around the world quickly took unprecedented measures. This article focuses on the initial actions taken by the ECB. Sizeable asset purchases, including though a new Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, stabilised financial markets. The ECB also gave banks easier access to long-term central bank funding, while simultaneously easing its collateral requirements. That way, banks were able to satisfy euro area firms’ record demand for credit. However, the challenges ahead are manifold. While current conditions allow for a temporary shift towards expansionary fiscal policy, governments should be prepared for scenarios where borrowing costs rise. Otherwise, debt sustainability considerations will interfere with the conduct of monetary policy.

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