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Articles disponibles gratuitement du domaine d’activités de la Revue bancaire et financière – Bank en Financiewezen. Les articles sont mis à disposition dans leur langue originale.

  • Mercredi 6/5/2020
    Geoffrey Minne, Peter Reusens

    The current health crisis and subsequent lockdown measures have provoked a sizable shock for Belgian private companies. A new weekly survey targeting Belgian private companies was launched for the Economic Risk Management Group (ERMG) to gauge the impact of the coronavirus crisis on the Belgian economy. After conducting four waves of the survey, we estimate the average turnover reduction for the entire economy at 33% compared to the pre-crisis situation. The bars, hotels and restaurants industry and the arts, entertainment and leisure industry report a much larger negative impact and one out of five respondents active in these sectors says bankruptcy is probable or highly probable.

  • Mercredi 6/5/2020
    Koen De Leus, Ludo Coenen

    The corona virus is impacting heavily our economy. Forecasts for Belgium - and Europe - range from -5% to -15% for 2020. The ultimate damage depends on whether we can control the virus after a gradual relaxation of the measures. For our long-term prosperity, it is crucial that after the strong contraction, there will be a full recovery without loss of production capacity. We developed a plan to achieve a quick and safe recovery.

  • Mercredi 6/5/2020
    Bernard Kepenne

    While everyone is now fully aware that we are going to have to learn to live with Covid-19 for a long time to come, the question arises as to what the standard will be tomorrow for ensuring good social distancing. What if we actually already have the answer? What if we already have a cure? Digital technology, which has been permeating our lives for several years, is now becoming essential in this context of crisis as the solution through teleworking, e-commerce, distance learning, in particular. 

  • Mercredi 6/5/2020
    Koen De Leus

    Will residential real estate prices go down badly because of the Corona recession? We see a lower supply, low mortgage rates, a largely stable demand and only a slight decrease in disposable income. Add to this a negative inflation of -0.4%. That combination leads us to a minimum decline of 1% for 2020 and stable real real estate prices in 2021. Of course, if our U-shaped scenario turns into a more protracted recession, price pressure will be mounting.

     

  • Vendredi 17/4/2020
    Paul De Grauwe

    Sooner or later, the ECB must accept that monetary financing in support of deficit spending is a necessity not just for mitigating the Corona crisis, but also for averting a downward deflationary cycle that could pull the Eurozone apart. It is time to think outside the box and to set aside dogmas that may be appropriate in normal times but not when we face an existential crisis.

  • Vendredi 17/4/2020
    Johan Van Gompel

    The corona crisis is taking a high human toll, but clearly also has a significant impact on the economy. In this article, we offer an update of KBC’s economic outlook for the Belgian economy. We are aware that this numerical estimate, even more than in normal times, is uncertain. Nevertheless, we want to provide new economic insights. They take into account the latest developments in the spread and medical impact of the Covid-19 virus and policy responses to mitigate the impact on public health and the economy. In our analysis we take several possible scenarios for GDP growth into account: a base scenario and an optimistic and pessimistic scenario, which we currently assign a probability of 50%, 15% and 35% respectively. In a box added to the article, we also provide an estimate of the impact of the crisis on Belgium’s public finances. 

  • Vendredi 17/4/2020
    Debrun - Donnay

    The sanitary measures adopted on a global scale to contain the Covid-19 pandemic have inflicted a shock never seen before on the Belgian economy, be it in terms of depth or suddenness. Because usual forecasting tools cannot be relied upon in such unique circumstances, forecasters had to turn to scenario analysis and model simulations to get a sense of the macroeconomic impact of the shock. This note discusses the outcome of a scenario prepared by staff from the National Bank of Belgium and the Federal Planning Bureau. Considering a 7-week lockdown followed by a recovery spreading until mid-2021, real GDP is expected to contract by 8 percentage points in 2020, with a strong rebound envisaged in 2021. The scenario is premised on the absence of any significant damage to the productive potential of the economy and on a swift pickup of private consumption from the second half of 2020, reflecting effective protection of disposable income and the unwinding of pent-up demand. On the production side, liquidity stress is considerable but deemed manageable so that solvency is largely preserved. Thus, mass bankruptcies and persistent job losses are not part of the scenario. The expected effect on public finances is commensurate to the shock with a deficit of at least 7,5 percent of GDP and public debt around 115 percent at end-2020. 

  • Vendredi 17/4/2020
    Johan Van Gompel

    De Belgische woningprijzen bleven ook in 2019 sterk toenemen, toe te schrijven aan de lage rente, de sterke jobcreatie en de afschaffing van de woonbonus in Vlaanderen begin 2020. De coronacrisis betekent allicht het einde van de langdurige prijshausse in België. De inkomensschok veroorzaakt door de crisis zal de woningvraag vanwege de gezinnen immers zwaar treffen, waardoor de prijzen zullen corrigeren. De aanhoudend lage rente en de toegenomen risicoaversie op de financiële markten zullen de (investerings)vraag naar vastgoed evenwel ondersteunen en de verwachte prijscorrectie beperken. Concreet gaan we ervan uit dat de Belgische woningprijzen in 2020 en 2021 met respectievelijk 3% en 2% zullen dalen. Dit basisscenario, waaraan we momenteel een waarschijnlijkheid toekennen van 50%, is onderhevig aan heel wat onzekerheid. De risico’s zijn vooral neerwaarts gericht en dus zijn sterkere prijscorrecties mogelijk.

  • Vendredi 17/4/2020
    Paul De Grauwe

    It appears that the objective of the internationalization of the Renminbi (requiring convertibility) and the authoritarian credit allocation mechanism within China conflict with each other. If China pursues its ambition to make the Renminbi an international currency the authorities will have to abandon their ambition to control the domestic allocation of credit. It is unclear today how the Chinese authorities wish to resolve this conflict. It seems to me that they are more likely to continue to pursue domestic financial control. As a result, it is unlikely that the Renminbi will challenge the dollar as an international currency soon. I also conclude that the future clash between the dollar and the Renminbi is not something to be expecting soon.

  • Vendredi 17/4/2020
    Van Gompel - Mandra

    In recent decades, emerging markets have become more integrated into the global financial system. High-yielding emerging market government debt (‘emerging debt’) gained growing interest from investors, especially against a backdrop of historically low interest rates in developed markets. Given the higher risk typically associated with emerging market assets, and a general growing interest in socially responsible investing (SRI), it is important to be able to assess whether emerging debt meets certain criteria related to economic stability, good governance, and environmental and social impacts. In connection with the SRI funds offered by KBC Asset Management, in this research report we present the sustainability screening of a wide group of emerging markets (the KBC Emerging Markets Sustainability Barometer) to arrive at a ‘best in class’ sustainable investment universe. The Central and Eastern European countries score quite well in the ranking. Countries from the region secure the top 5 spots and 11 out of 18 emerging countries that are eligible for investment in KBC's SRI bond funds originate from the region.

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