Zorgen economische littekens na pandemie voor gelijkaardige trage groei als na Grote Financiële Crisis?
The developed world is almost liberated from covid-19. This does not mean that we will be reliving the roaring 20's, or the very fast growth after the second world war. However, we are also a long way from the dire situation after the Great Financial Crisis that had left major scars in the economy. Economic scars from the pandemic are minor compared to the scars left by the GFC.
If we get it right, the reopening and the recovery of the economy - for which a soon returning peace in Ukraine is a prerequisite - could be the harbinger of great things to come. Possibly we are facing a regime change, a reset of the economy rather than a simple reboot. Comparison with the post-war recovery is popular. After the two world wars, the infrastructure had to be rebuilt. This time it needs to be thoroughly adapted to meet the climate challenge. This will require major public investments and adjustments to corporate production. Although a population explosion and a huge increase in credit are unlikely (two important growth engines during the post-war periods), an increase in investment - for a speedy energy transition - and productivity - increased technology investment by a broader range of companies during the covid period - are possible. The government will have to take on an important role here and lead by example. In this way, we can turn the necessary energy transition into an opportunity to put growth on a faster path compared to before the pandemic.