corona

The developed world is almost liberated from covid-19. This does not mean that we will be reliving the roaring 20's, or the very fast growth after the second world war. However, we are also a long way from the dire situation after the Great Financial Crisis that had left major scars in the economy. Economic scars from the pandemic are minor compared to the scars left by the GFC.

If we get it right, the reopening and the recovery of the economy - for which a soon returning peace in Ukraine is a prerequisite - could be the harbinger of great things to come. Possibly we are facing a regime change, a reset of the economy rather than a simple reboot. Comparison with the post-war recovery is popular. After the two world wars, the infrastructure had to be rebuilt. This time it needs to be thoroughly adapted to meet the climate challenge. This will require major public investments and adjustments to corporate production. Although a population explosion and a huge increase in credit are unlikely (two important growth engines during the post-war periods), an increase in investment - for a speedy energy transition - and productivity - increased technology investment by a broader range of companies during the covid period - are possible. The government will have to take on an important role here and lead by example. In this way, we can turn the necessary energy transition into an opportunity to put growth on a faster path compared to before the pandemic.

Economists regard COVID-19 as a global and exogenous shock. In response, the EU set up a recovery plan consisting of grants and favourable loans to Member States over 2021-2026. The pandemic affected countries dependent on tourism more than the other countries. The recovery plan therefore involves an aspect of solidarity by providing grants and by taking into account both the initial vulnerability and the economic damage caused by COVID-19 in the Recovery and Resilience Facility allocation criteria for the grants. Thanks to these criteria, Italy and Spain are the main beneficiaries in terms of grants. Together with loans, this will boost their economic activity over the medium term more than in Germany, France and Belgium.

In exchange for EU grants and loans, all countries must submit Recovery and Resilience Plans describing the investments and reforms that they intend to carry out with a view to strengthening their economies. Belgium was expected to receive only € 5.9 billion worth of grants. This amount might even be substantially lower once the effective GDP losses for 2020 and 2020-2021 are known in spring 2022. Nevertheless, as a small open economy, Belgian GDP might benefit more from the Recovery and Resilience Plans implemented in Germany, France, Italy and Spain than from its own plan.

Report by Frank Lierman, president of the Editorial Committee of Bank- en Financiewezen, of Koen Dejonckheere’s presentation during the Belgian Financial Forum Webinar of 5 October 2021.

Verslag door Frank Lierman, voorzitter redactiecomité van bank- en Financiewezen, van de presentatie van Koen Dejonckheere tijdens het Webinar van Belgisch Financieel Forum op 5 oktober 2021.

Report by Frank Lierman, president of the Editorial Committee of Bank- en Financiewezen, of the Belgian Financial Forum Webinar given by Stijn Baert, professor at the University of Ghent on 15 of September 2021.

Verslag van de Webinar van prof Stijn Baert van de universiteit Gent voor het Belgisch Financieel Forum op 15 september 2021, opgesteld door Frank Lierman, voorzitter redactiecomité van bank- en Financiewezen.