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  • Maandag 14/11/2022

    Persistently high inflation and aggressive monetary policy tightening seem set to cause a global recession. Central banks around the world have been raising interest rates this year with a degree of synchronicity not seen over the past five decades. Meanwhile, confidence among firms and households has fallen to depressed levels. The pace of monetary tightening will likely slow in the coming months. However, more forceful action might be required to dampen demand and drive inflation out of the economic system. Another risk is that higher interest rates cause problems in the financial system which then seep into the real economy.

    The eurozone is suffering from the surge in energy prices, rising interest rates and weaker external demand. The question is not whether the region faces a recession, but rather how deep and how long it will last. And with inflation to stay uncomfortably high, the ECB will press on with tightening policy. The US economy will likely experience a milder recession in 2023, as rate hikes weigh on consumption and investment (particularly residential). Inflation may well fall back more rapidly than widely expected, opening the door for rate cuts again from late 2023 onwards. In China, despite greater policy stimulus, growth will remain depressed next year as the zero-COVID approach continues to weigh on activity, exports fall, and property construction fails to recover materially.

  • Dinsdag 31/8/2021
    Dir. HIlgers - Prof. Degryse

    This article is based on the interventions of Jean Hilgers (National Bank of Belgium) and Professor Hans Degryse (KU Leuven) during the Webinar on the Macroprudential and Financial Stability Report of the National Bank of Belgium (June the 3rd, 2021).

  • Dinsdag 15/6/2021
    Wim Vermeir

    This article is based on the intervention of Wim Vermeir, Chief Investment Officer of AG Insurance – Ageas during the panel discussion at the EIB – National Bank of Belgium Webinar “Investment for a sustainable recovery in Belgium” on 30 April 2021.

  • Dinsdag 2/6/2020
    Steven Trypsteen

    The crisis has a large impact on income growth and this will lead to downward pressure on house prices. But there are also factors that support the housing market. We expect that the mortgage interest rate will remain low, that the relative yield on real estate will remain attractive and that the belief of Belgians in real estate will not be damaged. All in all, we currently think that house prices will drop by about 2% in 2020 and remain constant in 2021.