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risico's

  • Dinsdag 15/6/2021
    Hugues Bultot

    This article is based on the intervention of Hugues Bultot, founder & CEO of Univercells, during the panel discussion at the EIB – National Bank of Belgium Webinar “Investment for a sustainable recovery in Belgium” on 30 April 2021.

  • Vrijdag 17/4/2020
    Debrun - Donnay

    The sanitary measures adopted on a global scale to contain the Covid-19 pandemic have inflicted a shock never seen before on the Belgian economy, be it in terms of depth or suddenness. Because usual forecasting tools cannot be relied upon in such unique circumstances, forecasters had to turn to scenario analysis and model simulations to get a sense of the macroeconomic impact of the shock. This note discusses the outcome of a scenario prepared by staff from the National Bank of Belgium and the Federal Planning Bureau. Considering a 7-week lockdown followed by a recovery spreading until mid-2021, real GDP is expected to contract by 8 percentage points in 2020, with a strong rebound envisaged in 2021. The scenario is premised on the absence of any significant damage to the productive potential of the economy and on a swift pickup of private consumption from the second half of 2020, reflecting effective protection of disposable income and the unwinding of pent-up demand. On the production side, liquidity stress is considerable but deemed manageable so that solvency is largely preserved. Thus, mass bankruptcies and persistent job losses are not part of the scenario. The expected effect on public finances is commensurate to the shock with a deficit of at least 7,5 percent of GDP and public debt around 115 percent at end-2020. 

  • Dinsdag 26/3/2019
    NBB

    In recent years, the financial sector has been characterised by an increasing degree of digitalisation and the introduction of numerous new applications, processes or products under the impetus of technological innovations and changed preferences of the consumer. Digital transformation and fintech are concepts that are closely intertwined. They are characterised on the one hand by the entry into the market of new innovative service providers and on the other hand initiatives of existing institutions whereby the organisation, the processes, the service provision and the product range are improved through technological innovations. Fintech and digitalisation have a significant impact on individual banks but also on the sector as a whole. In order to gather a sector-wide insight into the important trends and evolutions regarding fintech and digitalisation in the Belgian financial landscape, the NBB has started an analysis, based on a survey among and discussions with Belgian banks, to solicit general insights into and observations about fintech, views on certain specific business models and technologies, and the concrete fintech strategy followed by Belgian banks. This report summarises the results of that analysis and wishes to contribute to raising awareness about the risks and opportunities of fintech. It also aims to share knowledge about the development of fintech in the Belgian banking sector, and to provide support to institutions in dealing with certain fintech-related challenges, by sharing best practices observed.

  • Dinsdag 11/9/2018
    Cristophe Cherry

    Over the last years credit risks issues have become more and more important in the priorities of CEO's. The risk of company failure due to buyer's payment default is one of the highest. Businesses go bankrupt more often due to a lack of cash than due to a lack of equity. Therefore, managing properly the main (only) money flow of any trading company - the trade receivables - is a key-success factor for long term profitable growth. Based on concrete examples and fruitful experience in credit and cash management this paper will elaborate on the best way to deal with credit risk. The digital future will also be explored through its main visible demonstration: the Fintechs.

  • Dinsdag 17/4/2018
    Gert De Mesure

    De Belgische residentiële vastgoedmarkt blijft hoge toppen scheren. Het streven naar een eigen woning zorgt voor een constante vraag naar woningen, de aangroei van de Belgische bevolking versterkt die vraag. Door de lage rente ontwikkelde zich een bijkomende vraag naar residentieel vastgoed als beleggingsobject. Of woningen vandaag hierdoor te duur zijn, dat laten we in het midden. We weten wel dat beleggen in vastgoed diverse voordelen heeft zoals een stabiele inkomstenstroom, een bescherming tegen inflatie, een hogere opbrengst dan het klassieke spaarboekje, terwijl het een mindere correlatie vertoont met andere activaklassen zoals aandelen en obligaties.

    Beleggen in vastgoed heeft ook nadelen. Het is minder liquide (het verkoopproces neemt meerdere weken in beslag), er zijn belangrijke transactiekosten, de instapdrempel ligt hoog en het risico is geconcentreerd in een actief.

    Beleggen in vastgoed via een beursgenoteerd fonds kan een alternatief bieden. We denken hierbij aan de GVV, of de gereglementeerde vastgoedvennootschap, vroeger beter bekend als de vastgoedbevak. De GVV geniet een gunstig fiscaal statuut en heeft diverse voordelen zoals een aantrekkelijk dividendrendement, een brede risicospreiding (over een groot aantal huurders, geografisch en tussen vastgoedsegmenten), een goede liquiditeit (kan op elk moment verkocht worden) en een heel professioneel beheer.

  • Maandag 6/11/2017
    Ying Liang

    In this article, I focus on accounting data that provide a view of the real economic activities of the various financial institutions, providing evidence on the diversification of the financial conglomerates.  Using yearly data from the Eurozone market (plus the UK and Switzerland) over the period 1999-2014, I compute the correlations between various accounting and financial ratios of banks and insurance companies and compare them to other industries. I have found that the banking and insurance industries are positively (of net sales, gross profit, to net income), but not perfectly, correlated. Their level of correlation does not appear particularly high compared to the correlations between the banking industry and several other industries. There is room to do diversification for banks and insurance industries; especially when facing the interest rate risk.