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BFW digitaal 2022/05

  • Zorgen economische littekens na pandemie voor gelijkaardige trage groei als na Grote Financiële Crisis?

    Maandag 30/5/2022
    Koen De Leus

    The developed world is almost liberated from covid-19. This does not mean that we will be reliving the roaring 20's, or the very fast growth after the second world war. However, we are also a long way from the dire situation after the Great Financial Crisis that had left major scars in the economy. Economic scars from the pandemic are minor compared to the scars left by the GFC.

    If we get it right, the reopening and the recovery of the economy - for which a soon returning peace in Ukraine is a prerequisite - could be the harbinger of great things to come. Possibly we are facing a regime change, a reset of the economy rather than a simple reboot. Comparison with the post-war recovery is popular. After the two world wars, the infrastructure had to be rebuilt. This time it needs to be thoroughly adapted to meet the climate challenge. This will require major public investments and adjustments to corporate production. Although a population explosion and a huge increase in credit are unlikely (two important growth engines during the post-war periods), an increase in investment - for a speedy energy transition - and productivity - increased technology investment by a broader range of companies during the covid period - are possible. The government will have to take on an important role here and lead by example. In this way, we can turn the necessary energy transition into an opportunity to put growth on a faster path compared to before the pandemic.

  • The euro area outlook: some analytical considerations

    Maandag 30/5/2022
    Philip R. Lane

    This is the speech given by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at Bruegel (Brussels, 5 May 2022).

     

     

  • A helicopter view of young Belgian retail investors

    Maandag 30/5/2022
    Koen Breemersch / Marjan Wauters

    This article analyzes the behavior of Belgian retail investors over different age categories. It highlights five distinct features of the younger investors aged 18 to 30. First, the stock market keeps on attracting new and young investors. Secondly, younger retail investors show great interest in investing in exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Thirdly, the younger generation applies a more international outlook in its investments than older generations. Fourth, young investors are net purchasers of stocks and hold these investments for a longer period than other groups. Finally, even among younger investors, active retail investors are predominantly male.

  • ECB gaat meer rekening houden met kostprijs eigen woning

    Maandag 30/5/2022
    Jana Jonckheere

    The ECB’s strategic review (2020-2021) came out in favour of including owner-occupied housing costs in the way inflation is measured. Surveys that the ECB and the euro area central banks held with the general public revealed that there is considerable concern about rising costs for housing, when it comes to the concept of “inflation”. Yet, such things as house purchase costs are not yet included in the current inflation measure that the ECB uses, namely the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). 

    Eurostat already publishes an index, in which house purchase costs, as well as other expenses such as stamp duty and renovation work, are included. This is the owner-occupied house price index. The ECB is calling for this index to be gradually integrated, in stages, into the existing HICP index. This article looks into just what exactly this index reflects, how housing costs will be included, and what impact would that have on the measurement of inflation. The focus is on findings for Belgium. 

    The impact is quite significant in the most recent period. In 2020, Belgium’s inflation rate, including the cost of owner-occupied housing, would for example have been 0.7 % instead of the official figure of 0.4 %, an impact of 0.3 of a percentage point. Based on the first three quarters of 2021, the impact would even be 0.4 of a percentage point in that year.

  • L’empreinte belge s’étend

    Maandag 30/5/2022
    Marie Lemeire

    Strangely enough, foreign companies invested more in Belgium than vice versa till 2015. Belgium overcame this peculiar situation. Belgium's outgoing direct investment exceeds its incoming nowadays, creating wealth abroad. This blog describes how some key investors contributed to a turnaround and caused more capital to flow to foreign economies. You can also read more about the stability and other advantages of foreign direct investment