Show menu

BFW digitaal 2022/09

  • Main Findings on Household Heterogeneity and Policy Relevance

    Maandag 14/11/2022
    Frank Lierman
    Frank Lierman

    This report summarizes the key messages of the keynote speeches, invited papers and working papers presented and discussed during the biennial conference on “Household Heterogeneity and Policy Relevance”, organized by the National Bank of Belgium on 20 and 21 October 2022.

  • Comment l’économie s’adapte-t-elle à la hausse des taux ?

    Maandag 14/11/2022
    Philippe Ledent

    In this article, we look back at the origin of the inflation that led the main central banks to drastically increase their key rates this year. The article then illustrates the initial effects of these rate hikes on the economy and financial markets. Finally, it questions the need for central banks to continue these rate hikes, distinguishing between the situation in the United States and in the Eurozone.

  • Economische conjunctuur: een korte reis rond de wereld

    Maandag 14/11/2022
    Hans Bevers

    Persistently high inflation and aggressive monetary policy tightening seem set to cause a global recession. Central banks around the world have been raising interest rates this year with a degree of synchronicity not seen over the past five decades. Meanwhile, confidence among firms and households has fallen to depressed levels. The pace of monetary tightening will likely slow in the coming months. However, more forceful action might be required to dampen demand and drive inflation out of the economic system. Another risk is that higher interest rates cause problems in the financial system which then seep into the real economy.

    The eurozone is suffering from the surge in energy prices, rising interest rates and weaker external demand. The question is not whether the region faces a recession, but rather how deep and how long it will last. And with inflation to stay uncomfortably high, the ECB will press on with tightening policy. The US economy will likely experience a milder recession in 2023, as rate hikes weigh on consumption and investment (particularly residential). Inflation may well fall back more rapidly than widely expected, opening the door for rate cuts again from late 2023 onwards. In China, despite greater policy stimulus, growth will remain depressed next year as the zero-COVID approach continues to weigh on activity, exports fall, and property construction fails to recover materially.

  • Borrowing from the National Bank: how does it work?

    Maandag 14/11/2022
    Vanherpe Rogier

    A national bank would not be a bank if it could not lend money. Indeed, only a commercial bank can take out a loan from the national bank, but other than that, the process is not that much different from when you as an individual take out a loan from a commercial bank. To take out a loan from a national bank, you would also need collateral, independent third parties and - as for all financial institutions - risks are controlled to a maximum.